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Seeing Kaitie Keough (Cannondale p/b Cyclocrossworld.com) in the US Cup-CX leader’s jersey after races has become a common sight this season. Keough won the opening race at the KMC Cross Fest five weekends ago and has maintained her position atop the standings ever since.

Kaitie Keough cemented her US Cup-CX lead over the weekend. 2017 Cincinnati Cyclocross, Day 2, Harbin Park. © Cyclocross Magazine

Kaitie Keough wearing the US Cup-CX leader’s jersey has been a common sight this year. 2017 Cincinnati Cyclocross, Day 2, Harbin Park. © Cyclocross Magazine

Keough had a successful trip to Cincinnati, winning on Saturday and finishing third on Sunday. She current sits 25 points ahead of teammate Emma White with 415.

White lost some ground on Saturday with a fourth-place finish and then picked up a few points by finishing second on Sunday.

Emma White and Kaitie Keough finished second and third on Sunday. Elite Women, 2017 Cincinnati Cyclocross, Day 2, Harbin Park. © Cyclocross Magazine

Emma White is currently in second in the series standings. Elite Women, 2017 Cincinnati Cyclocross, Day 2, Harbin Park. © Cyclocross Magazine

For fun, I decided to do my best Nate Silver impression and handicap the series outcome. The spread between White and Keough is currently at 25 points, which means if Keough finishes fifth or above, she wins the series. The tiebreaker gives the nod to the most recent winner, which means a sixth for Keough and a win for White would give the latter the overall series title.

Since the start of 2015, Keough has finished in the top five in 82% of domestic UCI races she has entered. I excluded the U.S. World Cups, if you are checking the math. Of course, thanks as always to Colin Reuter at crossresults.com.

White, however, is not an easy out. During that same time period, she has podiumed in 70% of the domestic UCI races she has entered.

Based on the limited data and broad assumptions, Keough has an 89% chance of winning the US Cup-CX overall series.

Will a DNF derail Keough’s quest for the $10,000 prize? Not likely.

With the announcement by Scott Tedro that the prize purse for the US Cup-CX will be expanding to provide payouts to second and third, the battle for those positions now takes on a renewed interest for riders and fans.

Ellen Noble (Aspire Racing) had a monster weekend in Cincy and now sits in third place at 285 points. Rebecca Fahringer (Stan’s NoTubes p/b Maxxis/Go Fahr) sits 11 points back in 4th.

Ellen Noble celebrates her first US Cup-CX win at Harbin Park. Elite Women, 2017 Cincinnati Cyclocross, Day 2, Harbin Park. © Cyclocross Magazine

Ellen Noble’s win on Sunday at Harbin Park has helped move her into third in the series standings. Elite Women, 2017 Cincinnati Cyclocross, Day 2, Harbin Park. © Cyclocross Magazine

The last race in the series is Saturday’s Derby City Cup C2 in Louisville. 70 points will be on the line for the winner.

Women's US Cup-CX Standings After 6 of 7 Races

PlaceLastFirstKMC-1KMC-2CHM-1CHM-2CNY-1CNY-2OVERALL
1KeoughKaitie756075707560415
2WhiteEmma657070606065390
3NobleEllen4540656570285
4FahringerRebecca505555501450274
5AnthonyCrystal55506045408258
6ManiCaroline3550557035245
7RochetteMaghalie70652565225
8ArensmanHannah252540151211128
9KemmererArley353045110
10Ferrier-BruneauChristel6045105
11ClouseKatie40112030101
12McFaddenCourtenay5545100
13MaximenkoCassandra2025302095
14HonsingerClara504090
15Gomez VillafaneSofia255580